Romney vs. Santorum: The Battle in Michigan and Arizona

Primary elections for the Republican presidential candidates will be held in Michigan and Arizona tomorrow!  While there are numerous rumors floating around about Romney having the upper-hand in both states, these races have been known to be highly unpredictable.

Rick Santorum (left) and Mitt Romney (right)

Michigan

In 2008, Romney won Michigan with the support of the state's conservatives who turned out in huge numbers to vote. However, with the added drama of Romney's op-ed piece entitled "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt," (details his opposition of the auto bailout), the citizens of Michigan may not be so friendly towards him anymore. So basically, Romney supports bailing out the banks, but not the auto industry. Pretty typical Romney.  The problem for him is, polls show voters in Michigan approve of the bailout.  Some analysts have claimed more than 1 million jobs were saved by the bailout.  With that said, Romney's feeble attempt at lessening the blow of his op-ed included a statement that his wife owns "a couple of Cadillacs."  Ok...

As crazy as Santorum is, at least he is more consistent than Romney; he opposed both bailouts.  Santorum has attacked Romney for "support[ing] his friends on Wall Street and then turn[ing] his back on the people of Detroit." Good point.

Although Romney was born and raised in Michigan, he has been struggling to connect with the average blue-collar Republican who is still struggling and feeling the effects of the recession. Also, let's not forget, Romney is "not concerned about the very poor" and he thinks "corporations are people." This kind of rhetoric is simply not going to fly with the average American.

Romney recently attacked Santorum for being a career politician, saying that since he has never worked in the private sector, he does not know enough about economics to lead the country in an economic revival. Advertisements by both Romney and Santorum have been flying around like crazy, signaling that this is going to be a tight race between the two. We will have to wait and see what happens in Michigan tomorrow, but Romney better watch out!

Arizona

At first glance, it looks like Arizona might just be a slam-dunk for Romney.  With the endorsement of Senator John McCain and Arizona's large Mormon population, many are saying this is probably a done deal.  But maybe not...

Rick Santorum is putting up a pretty good fight!  The Tea Party in the state is strong and immigration issues are close to the heart.  

Although about 10% of voters in Arizona are Mormon, this might just not be enough to pull Romney through.  It looks like it will be a battle between Mormons (who are known to be loyal voters) and evangelicals and tea party members (who make up about 35% of the Republican party). Voter turnout is projected to be low in Arizona this year.  The lower the turnout, the more likely Santorum will win, and the higher the turnout, the more likely Romney will prevail.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

What do you think will happen in the primaries tomorrow?  Do you think Romney will be able to pull through?